Syrian Rebels Closing In On Homs, Cutting Off Damascus From Coast An Imminent Possibility (Updated)

By on 09/12/2024 · 0 Comment

Homs is the last major city on anti-Assad forces’ road to Damascus and its capture would put them 75 miles north of the city.

Homs, Syria.s third-largest city, is close to being captured by rebels opposed to Bashar Al-Assad.
Homs, Syria.s third-largest city, is close to being captured by rebels opposed to Bashar Al-Assad.

There are growing indications that the central Syrian city of Homs is close to falling as rebel forces push south from the newly seized town of Hama. Its capture would represent another stunning blow to the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, which has already lost Aleppo too during this 10-day-old operation. This would put Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led fighters some 75 miles north of Damascus and all but cutting off the capital’s access to the coast. The coastal region is a bastion of Assad’s Alawite sect and home to Russia’s two military bases in Syria. You can read more about the capture of Hama in our story about it here.

HTS, the former al-Qaida-linked Al-Nusra Front, claimed on Friday that it had captured two towns six miles north of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city and a strategic gateway to the capital, Damascus, The Washington Post noted. There are also claims that those forces have reached Homs.

HOMS, SYRIA - DECEMBER 06: Anti-regime armed groups advancing in Syria's strategically important province of Homs, the gateway to the capital Damascus, reach the inner parts of the city center in Homs, Syria on December 06, 2024. (Photo by Izettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
HOMS, SYRIA – DECEMBER 06: Anti-regime armed groups advancing in Syria’s strategically important province of Homs, the gateway to the capital Damascus, reach the inner parts of the city center in Homs, Syria on December 06, 2024. (Photo by Izettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images)

In his first interview with international news media since launching this campaign, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani told CNN on Friday that the goal of this drive is to reach Damascus and rid the nation of Assad.

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime,” he told the network. “It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal.”

The long-standing backing of allies Iran and Russia won’t save Assad this time, al-Jolani argued.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it … the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up,” he added. “But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Meanwhile, there are disparate claims that a coup attempt in Damascus was thwarted.

“A military source revealed to the Syrian Ministry of Information that an attempt at treason involving some officers who have relations with foreign countries was thwarted,” the official Syrian SAMA TV news outlet reported on its website. “The source confirmed that the security services were able to uncover the plan and thwart it before it could be implemented inside the General Staff building in Damascus. This operation comes as part of the Syrian Arab Army’s efforts to maintain internal security and confront any attempts to conspire against the country.”

However, the outlet’s Telegram channel stated that the report was false.

“Warning: This is fabricated and incorrect news and was not published by SAMA TV,” the Telegram channel proclaimed.

There is no independent reporting about this yet and The War Zone cannot independently verify either claim.

Columns of anti-Assad forces were seen approaching Homs on Friday as some residents happily greeted them with open displays of support.

One video shows what appears to be the heart of the city devoid of regime forces.

Other videos reportedly show Assad’s tanks withdrawing from Homs.

A Russian Ka-52 helicopter was spotted flying over Homs, reportedly firing a missile at a rebel drone.

However, Russia has begun evacuating Ka-52 and M-i8 helicopters from Homs to Damascus, according to the Syrian Aggression Management Telegram channel.

The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.

Amid the advance, the Russian embassy in Syria advised its citizens to leave the country.

There are claims that Assad’s forces withdrew from Homs to defend Latakia, where Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base is located. That installation is about 45 miles north of the sprawling naval facility in the port of Tartus. You can read more about the significance of these installations and what it would mean if they were captured in our deep dive here.

The proximity of anti-Assad forces to these bases – bringing them within striking distance of artillery and drones – has one prominent Russian milblogger worried about his nation’s forces there. The assessment mirrors much of what we mentioned in our previous piece.

The rebel advance “threatens the loss of the air strike component, which makes up 75 percent of the combat capabilities of our troops in the [Syrian Arab Republic] SAR,” the Russian Air Force-connected Fighterbomber Telegram channel bemoaned.

“The Khmeimim airfield is not a multi-story construction site with basements, it is a field with easily assembled houses on top, which will cease to function as soon as the enemy either approaches the range of artillery fire, or the range of drones,” Fighterbomber suggested. “And here it will not be possible to use the maneuver of aviation, which saves us on the mainland.”

Homs is about 50 miles east of the Russian naval base in Tartus and about 75 miles north of Damascus. (Google Earth image)

Given the terrain and road systems, there is “nowhere to withdraw,” the channel added.

“In fact, the only reserve airfields left in Syria are two airfields. This is a critical minimum. The situation with the naval base in Tartus is about the same. Of course, it is possible to defend and hold it for quite a long time, if there is someone and something, but it will either not be able to function at all, or very limitedly.”

“It is practically impossible to evacuate the bases,” Fighterbomber suggested. “In the best case, it is possible to evacuate most of the personnel, documentation and ferry serviceable aircraft.”

Russia’s main task in Syria now is to hold Latakia, Fighterbomber hypothesized.

Resistance to drones “is also limited by the distance from the mainland with its supplies of missiles and air defense systems,” Fighterbomber posited. “Therefore, the main task of our forces in Syria is to prevent the enemy from entering Latakia, even if we have to temporarily give up the rest of the territory.”

With the anti-Assad forces bearing down on Homs, some regime forces were reportedly seen withdrawing through Deir Atiyah, a town about halfway between Homs and Damascus along the key M-5 highway linking those two cities.

Meanwhile, the rebels are continuing to pour south toward Homs.

In an effort to slow down the advance, the Russian Air Force bombed the Al-Rastan Bridge in Homs countryside. The full extent of the damage is unclear from the following video. Regardless, the push continued.

Reports claim that tens of thousands of Alawites fled Homs ahead of the approaching rebels.

One anti-Assad fighter recalled how he and others were expelled from that city by the regime and basked in the fact that they were returning as an armed force to take the town back.

Meanwhile, the lightning advance to Homs has many Syrians celebrating.

With Assad’s forces rapidly folding, Iranian officials have promised weapons and troops to help Assad.

“Iran will send missiles, drones and more advisers to Syria, a senior Iranian official said on Friday,” Reuters reported.

Given the state of play on the battlefield, with Iran’s long-held land-routes across Syria that are used to deliver arms and personnel likely disrupted, that most likely means air flights into Damascus, which is under increasing pressure from the HTS-led forces. While those troops have reportedly captured air defense and radar systems, it is unknown if they have the know-how to endanger any aerial resupply efforts. Adding to the logistic woes, Israel has been intercepting flights from Iran over Syrian airspace, forcing them to return to Iran. So how exactly Iran will supply the increasingly physically isolated Assad regime remains unclear, regardless of their intent.

All this exacerbates the problem created by the Assad regime’s potential loss of access to the coast, cutting off all the ports through which supplies could pass. The same is true for just supplying the country as a whole with the goods it needs.

Efforts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to meet with Assad were rebuffed, the Turkish Hurriyet Daily News reported on Friday.

“We made a call to Assad, saying, ‘Come and let’s determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we did not receive a positive response on this issue,” Erdoğan told reporters on Dec. 6 after prayers in Istanbul’s Üsküdar district.

He did not specify when the overture was made, the publication noted.

“Idlib, Hama, Homs and, of course, the target is Damascus,” Erdoğan explained. “The opposition’s advancement continues. We hope this continues without any accidents or troubles.”

Amid the HTS-led push to the south, U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters have been gaining ground in the east and north.

In the east, regime forces “have almost completely evacuated their positions in Deir Ezzor city, including withdrawals from Deir Ezzor Airport, Al-Tala’e camp and the 137th Brigade,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog group monitoring events, claimed Friday. “Meanwhile, Iranian-backed militias have also withdrawn from their positions in the city, moving toward the Syrian-Iraqi border amid the fleeing of militia leaders.”

In addition, “the 17th Division of regime forces withdrew from Al-Mayadeen city in eastern Deir Ezzor countryside.

Earlier today, “regime forces started to withdraw several military units from different areas in Deir Ezzor to Damascus,” SOHR claimed, citing its sources. “The withdrawals were concentrated in positions in the cities of Deir Ezzor, Al-Bokamal and Al-Mayadeen and Al-Quriyah area and other positions in areas stretching along Euphrates river in Al-Bokamal countryside.”

There are also claims that SDF forces captured the border crossing in Al-Bukamal, where Iraqi fighters had been flowing into the country.

This follows Thursday’s SDF-backed “Al-Tabaqah Military Council Forces” taking control of positions in Al-Raqqah countryside in the north, as precautionary measures to cope with expected attacks by ISIS following the withdrawal of regime forces from those positions.”

The situation in Syria is fluid as Assad’s defenses are rapidly crumbling. This is a quickly developing story that we will update as more news comes in.

Update: 6:56 PM –

In another sign that the Assad government is struggling to survive, Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria, The New York Times is reporting. The publication cited regional officials and three Iranian officials.

“Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps,” the officials told the publication. “Guards personnel, some Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians were also being evacuated, according to the Iranian officials, two of them members of the Guards, and regional officials. Iranians began to leave Syria on Friday morning, the officials said.”

Meanwhile, it appears that Assad remains in Syria.

“We haven’t seen any evidence to corroborate claims” that Assad fled, a Western official told The War Zone.

Amid the rebels’ rapid rout, Russians continue to evacuate personnel and equipment. A column containing elements of an S-400 surface-to-air defense system was reportedly seen rolling south down the M1 Highway from the Khmeimim Air Base to their naval base in Tartus.

Though Russia still has a presence in Syria, it may not come forward to help Assad with his army on the run, Bloomberg reported.

The Jordanian Embassy is pushing back against claims made in The Wall Street Journal that Amman and Cairo urged Assad to leave the country and set up a government in exile.

“The Embassy of Jordan strongly denies the baseless allegations made in the Wall Street Journal article titled ‘Syrian Rebels Advance on Third Major City in Growing Threat to Assad’ by Isabel Coles. The claim that Jordanian officials urged President Assad to leave Syria and form a government in exile is entirely unfounded and false. We regret that such a reputable news outlet would publish unverified and misleading information without proper fact-checking.

The Embassy of Jordan was never approached by the Wall Street Journal to verify this claim, which is a serious breach of journalistic standards. We categorically reject this fabrication and call on the WSJ management to issue a correction immediately.”

The Assad regime lost another city, Hasakah, in the north. It reportedly fell to the SDF, making it the fourth regional capital to have fallen since the uprising began.

Syrian rebels took over the southern city of Daraa — the cradle of the country’s 2011 uprising — after reaching a deal with the army to secure its orderly withdrawal, rebel sources told Reuters. Senior security and army officials serving in the city have been given safe passage to Damascus, those sources claimed.

As Assad’s control over the country shrinks, the symbols of his family’s long rule are coming down, with two recent instances taking place south of Damascus.

Rebels in Daraa took down a statue of his father, the late Hafez al-Assad.

In the city of Suwayda, about 50 miles south of Damascus, Druze rebels tore down posters of Assad.

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